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1 in 10 Americans Own Bitcoin?

1 in 10 Americans Own Bitcoin?

Dear Cryptocurrency Investors:

You are a big audience. That means we might get bigger?

We’ll start with a little speculation, John McAfee style.

If Bitcoins are $1,000,000 each by the year 2020, here is how the chart might look, if charts had straight lines.


MILLION - Copy


(Come back and look at this in a year.)

Curse McAfee if he’s wrong.

That will mean the total capitalization of bitcoin would be approaching 20 Trillion dollars – if bitcoin can go this high.

It would be a 100-fold increase if it did.

Talk about irrational exuberance. I think people would almost consider a McAfee diet if bitcoin does value at a million bucks per.

Currently, the US debt is about as much as what bitcoin would be worth, as a whole, in this year 2020 scenario: 20 trillion clams.

Let’s back track though. Get our bearings.

Bitcoins were about $400 each, two years ago. I got nervous then and sold some — after reading some bubbly stuff. Dumb mistake.

They grew 25-fold by 2017 – to more than $10,000 each. That has apparently surprised a lot of people and fresh bubble calls are in vogue again.

I mean seriously, did you expect this?

How about awareness?

Estimates put awareness of bitcoin (in the US) at about 80%. (Maybe.)

In 2013, awareness was half that number – in the US. Around 40%.

But awareness and ownership are different animals.

India is far more aware of cryptocurrency today, according to some reports.

Of Americans who are aware of bitcoin (cryptocurrencies) only about 14% actually own any.

That’s about 35 million Americans who own bitcoins(No wonder the IRS is complaining they can’t steal enough money!)

Translated? About 1 in 10 Americans owns crypto.

Now, using Joe Kennedy’s rationalization – listen to the shoeshine boy – for getting out of the stock market before it tanks, just prior to the Great Depression, are we near a bubble – now? But remember, Joe Kennedy shorted the markets back then. And he made a bundle. He did not get out of the markets.

So, the allegation today, that everyone is talking about bitcoin and this will be its downfall, seems to fall flat.

I’ve asked my financial planner (US-based) if anyone has asked him about bitcoin – really wanted to talk about it – and he sees the high dollar investor types all the time; and he said that virtually none of his clients talks about it. They may mention it in passing, but they are not serious about it. His investors are after real investments, he advised. Safer and better. Bitcoin is a confusing mess at tax time – in the US.

And if that is the “tell” – everyone is talking about it – then I’d have to ask you where you are. Because in my neck of the woods (Florida), few make mention of it. No clerks or cell phone sales guys. No neighbors or bus drivers.  I often ask them, just to have fun. Most just stare at me.

And bitcoin signs? Billboards? Darned few around here. Maybe some local radio announcer gives his take. Or maybe I should get out more.

Additionally, all the classic bubble burst models I’ve checked show 10 to 20% drops in value and then crashes – not to the floor, but maybe to the 20% – 40% level.

Bitcoin has been swinging like a drunken sailor since day one. And then recovering. It does not appear to listen to the bubblers. Or not yet anyway.

Do I think bitcoin is magic? Don’t be silly. But I do think we need some new bubble models on this one. All the old earmarks seem wanting.

And maybe the gurus of the bubble will need to rewrite the business books after a few more years of growth. This time, using a model that accepts that crypto is a money replacement and not a stock.

Oh, the shock.

But I could be wrong. Being a pessimist at heart – skeptical – I’ve been waiting patiently for the Great Bitcoin Crash, so I can tell all those nasty Bitcoin Rich guys that I told them so.

In the meantime, just on the outside chance BTC’s go to a million each, I don’t think owning a slice is a bad thing.

Sincerely,

 

Jack Shorebird

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Bitcoin to $2,000,000 in Three Years?

Bitcoin to $2,000,000 in Three Years?

 


How to make two million dollars in three years, by purchasing one bitcoin as soon as possible?

At that point you should only be required to pay long term capital gains taxes.

Why not 20 million — if the dollar devalues fast enough? In Venezuela, I estimate that bitcoins are are well over million Bolivares each. Let’s check that math.

The price of bitcoin this second, is about $2300 and dropping — again. This was expected. That is equivalent to 23,000 Venezuelan Bolivares (VEB) — at the official rate. Not bad you say, but wait, there’s less… The official rates are nonsense.

20 Million Boilvares per bitcoin?

The unofficial price you will pay for one bitcoin in Venezuela is about 19,555,000 VEB. Let’s just round that off. To buy a single bitcoin in that Socialist paradise will set you back about 20 million VEB. That’s a big stack of paper and the last I heard, the government there was having trouble obtaining enough paper to print money.

So already, in some countries, you are a rich. Not really. One US dollar is equivalent to about 8500 VEB — street value. (See here for realistic conversions rates.) So you would still have, realistically, about $2300 bucks US. That is if a Venezuelan could really afford to buy a single bitcoin. Bummer.

Maybe the Venezuelan dictator can ask the motorcycle gangs currently stealing sugar from moving trucks in broad daylight, Mad Max style, to swipe a few rolls of paper and pass it along to the printing office. You know, in order to print more money. Wait — bad idea — toilet paper is also at a premium there. Actually, I think they are fresh out — a year ago.

But talk about optimism. John McAfee tweeted that:

Bitcoin would reach $500,000 in value in three years.

…or he will eat his own privates on national TV. Sure he will.

But McAfee might stick to his 10 million dollar bet. Why? Because according to this piece, McAfee is betting on a bitcoin fork. Not bitcoin. Did you catch that? He’s betting on some new type of bitcoin.

I’d say McAfee is going to lose 10 mil and a part of his anatomy. Well, maybe the 10 mil, unless he’s insane. Come to think of it — not the insane part — I want to see that bet. Any evidence he actually made it? That anyone has excepted?

Whether it’s just a publicity stunt we might never know. McAfee does say some pretty relevant stuff though. Take his Google comments. He wants to take them out. Why? For very good reasons. The fact that Google tends to obtain too much information about us. Kind of a errant, business-like, “Big Brother.” One that shares information with Uncle Sam when politely asked.

Don’t worry, your smart phone, computer and talking toy robot are not really watching you…that much. They have no idea that you are a Crypto-Head. And I say this in all seriousness and sarcasm. (Did I mention that the FBI is now warning us about our children’s toy-spies?)

But back to the bitcoin news. Does McAfee have a point? Will he retain his privates? Let’s just take that first question, in general.

Will bitcoin continue to increase in value over the mid to long term — if it does fork?

McAfee — and this guy ain’t no dummy — says yes. In fact, McAfee puts his faith in Bitmain CEO Jihan Wu.

In case you are still confused about a fork or two, look over the graphic provided here. It’s a great way to understand the basic SegWit, SegWit2, and UASF issues is a visual way. Things are definitely confusing this time around. So let’s ditch the acronyms and get back to our $2,000,000 bitcoin. I’m salivating, aren’t you?

Back to Bitmain and Wu. McAfee says Wu is a sharp guy and that the market will follow him with his brand of “bictoin,” whatever flavor that happens to be. The old traditional bitcoin, the one that was developed by Satoshi Nakamoto and supposedly improved by the core teams over the years, will take a nose dive — back to 40 bucks each. At that point, would it even survive? Can you imagine the bag-holders?

But that’s not all. It’s why I brought up the Venezuelan comparisons. McAfee thinks that as a result of his research, this “new” bitcoin will reach prices north of one million dollars. Maybe more than two million each.

Jump Ship?

So how will we, as consumers, jump ship, if Wu forks bitcoin (original flavor)? I’m assuming, but please don’t hold me to this, that we would simply begin using his systems — his wallets —  with our old bitcoin. We’d sort of do a mini-fork.

I’m sure Wu will announce his fork plans and then us little people can then decide for ourselves, which way to go. With Big Daddy Wu or Old Bitcoin core. Maybe I’ll head over to Iota for spell anyway. I just like their style.

This brings up yet another question. Suppose we try Wu’s “New and Improved” Bitcoin (extra crispy flavor) and we don’t like it. Can we then switch our bitcoins back to original flavor? We’ll see.

In the meantime, keep your eyes on Crypto and maybe deal in Litecoin or Ethereum until this Wu thing settles down.

And one more thing — and this is where lowly little me differs with Master McAfee. I think he’s wrong. Why would anyone invest in Wu-Coin if the guy knowing exploited a flaw in bitcoin to speed up mining and make higher profits, at the expense of the community at large?

And one last thing. I hate McAfee’s Antivirus software. Always had trouble with it.

Until next my next post, have a Crypto day.


Image: Flickr

 

 

 

 

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