Many people ask where cryptocurrency is heading. I thought I’d take a moment here and delve into that. A bit of forward conjecture.
Because I can’t seem to find it all in one place. Just bits and pieces of negative and positive elements. So, I jammed a few of them in here. And it’s all my opinion, of course. Take it with a smidgen of rock salt.
1. The CCE’s will Official-ize and DCE’s will not matter
Centralized Cryptocurrency Exchanges (CCE’s) may not survive in their current form. The year 2018, in the United States, will test their mettle.
Why? Tax laws, crypto-friendly countries, atomic swaps, and:
Decentralized Cryptocurrency Exchanges (DCE’s).
In a recent interview by an unnamed person, as not to disparage the name of a particular CCE, it was learned that things like atomic swaps and/or functional DCE’s are years into the future. That is, according to the CEO of this particular CCE. That centralized and regulated exchanges are better suited for a servile public and institutional investors. Regulation is acceptable.
Bull. We have grown up now. Training wheels are not handcuffs.
Some CCE’s even pride themselves for their transparency. They put a face to their company. They stand upright and walk on two legs and pay their taxes as all good citizens should. Even if the monetary system is rotten to the core. Don’t you dare try to improve it.
The anti-government stance seems to worry the CCE’s. Just be nice and trade, they ask. We are all in the same sinking boat after all – the CEO says from the crow’s nest — as the waters rush in.
But let’s face it. If a CCE decides to go transparent, it has no choice. The business model they chose, for good or ill, requires that they follow and not lead, at least in the U.S. In the U.S., CCE’s must create and maintain a KYC, AML compliant trading platform or face prosecution. It’s that simple. No submarines allowed. Surface ships only, please. Even if we lose the war.
Add to this CCE mix, the recent 2018 U.S. tax law clarifications regarding cryptocurrency trading and one can speculate as to the true motives behind a certain unnamed CCE’s recent announcement that they are moving in the direction of U.S. Dollar trading – for most users. And that they are apparently seeking to offer actual securities (stocks and bonds) in the future.
Why? They are losing money – or soon will be. They need you to buy and buy now. The sooner the better. Use lots of cash. And, as the tax laws kill the cryptosphere in the U.S., the CCE’s will “evolve.” No, Mr. CCE, you will capitulate. You will spring backwards, to the safety of the fiat. And there, you will die Mr. CCE, for lack of verve and vision.
And that leads into the DCE’s. In their current incarnation, they are worthless or nearly so. Dead on arrival. You must pledge a bit of expensive bitcoin, choose a third party to settle disputes and wait forever. DCE’s are slow to improve, unprofessional, not user-friendly and untrusted.
Perhaps the new impetus will be the desire for free trade, unhindered by the regulations and onerous tax laws.
But we need something more.
2. The U.S. New Tax Laws will be Ineffective
Translation: Cryptocurrency trading is slowing down. U.S. customers especially, are not trading like they used to, because they know that each time they do so, they can no longer claim a “like-kind” exchange. In other words, the tax hit is helping to drive cryptocurrency prices lower. It is also killing the centralized exchanges – which could be a good thing.
U.S. based CCE’s must now shift into another gear if they want to stay in business. Aside from the threat of atomic swaps and DCE’s, the fact that trading will continue to slow because of tax laws, means that the CCE’s will begin to consolidate and/or offer more services.
This is already happening. It’s called survival mode. The hangover after the party. Luckily, there is still plenty of booze left, but it’s cheap booze now. Bitcoin is no longer as “top shelf” as it once was. Bitcoin Cash continues to hammer away.
These new tax laws, reduced trading and the bubble-popping amusement ride, is soaking value from the CCE’s, at hyper-speed. Where once, the cryptos flowed like champagne into the golden baths of the CCE’s, it now dribbles in as diluted, headache-inducing, sparkling wine, from the Left Coast (California).
As a result, expect CCE membership fees to emerge, large balance requirements, the wooing of institutional investors with unpublished deals, and the farming-out of the expensive retail arms to other companies, especially where labor is cheap. Expect more ads.
The net effect? The little guy will be left holding cryptocurrency he cannot trade, without first signing his life away. Should the little guy hold private coins, he will be suspect. Where will any freedom-seeking individual go?
This is why I feel that the new U.S. Tax Laws will be ineffective. They will make a show of it, force the crypto lovers underground, arrest a few, let the problem fester, and in the end, they will wake up with a new money. It is simply a matter of time. Even the dinosaurs died out.
Sophisticated traders and gamblers might hire third-party fictions to hold their crypto, but the vast majority will not be able to entertain such extravagant schemes. Tax loopholes are for the affluent.
3.The Rise of “SPACE”
If you live under a rock, you’ve never heard of a DCE. That’s fine. Maybe atomic swaps are your thing. Or even Atomic Coin, which is another altcoin. But I don’t think you’ve heard about this next idea. It’s not about another blockchain.
Spontaneous Private Atomic Cryptocurrency Exchange(s)? Or: S.P.A.C.E.
It does not yet exist.
I predict we will see the beginnings of SPACE in 2018. It will be a combination of a CCE, DCE, Atomic Swaps, and best of all, it will be anonymous and untraceable. Imagine a private-Amazon with its own Monero-like cash that spends everywhere, instantly. Making fiat superfluous. (I’m an optimist.) Where you can store your crypto in the new cloud and access it where ever SPACE is used.
Already, we are seeing hints of this. Cloakcoin. Litecoin in talks with Monero? Some countries creating their own internet, with different protocols. Sharding altcoins, like MaidSafeCoin, just to name a few.
They all seem to miss the mark however. They all must ground themselves to the given ICANN. What if they didn’t? What if SPACE was created as needed? You initiate a private connection to a flexible network where there are no third parties. You buy, sell or trade instantly. Your choice of payment (coin) is saved, privately. And you disconnect. There would be no fees, no records, save your own and no limits. Everything would be automatic, anonymous, user-friendly and secure. Once the developers released such a network into the wild, it would, like bitcoin, be maintained in a similar manner.
Therefore, the next big thing, at least in the Cryptosphere, will be way out there. Beyond the current internet completely. A quantum leap and a human achievement that could set the stage for the next leap forward. That is the idea, isn’t it?
Will you be ready for SPACE?