Keep your brain-caps on. It’s the time that we few long-haul penny investors outdo the professionals, since we have invested the time and sweat. And we can have our chocolate croissants too.
I often research how readers land on my relatively unknown and largely unread newsletter. I do this to both improve my information – I hope – but also to communicate what I think people are thinking. I mean Google Trends are one thing, but reading the fricking tea leaves is for the fools, like me.
I have more time to do this now, because I have spent countless hours, days, months, and now – years – with my nose to the computer screen looking at (investing in) cryptocurrencies. It all started before bitcoin, when I was looking for something like it…and now I’m here…and going slowly blind. (I’m old, what can I say. But I’ll bet I was in crypto before most.)
In some cases, I can pull the search phrases people use when they land on a post of mine. Lately, among a dozen other search phrases, someone asked a very odd question, but maybe it’s not so weird. Maybe I’m missing my own ship…again. And mind you, I’ve sailed a few rough seas and even the lake I live on in Florida.
It’s about Cardano (ADA).
The person who landed on my site, typed simply:
“cardano the next bitcoin”
…and that was it.
I thought, what? Replace bitcoin? Are you kidding me? A crypto that is still wet behind the ears, not fully tested in the crypto battle front and is split into at least three parts, a wallet maker, a marketer, and a coin/system coder?
And all the funny names associated with Cardano (ADA). A dead mathematician and the world’s first algorithm developer. Okay. That’s nice. Nostalgia.
The name of the new algorithm: Ouroboros. A tongue twister for us “ugly Americans.” The serpent eating its own tail. How nice.
And the name of the wallet? Daedalus. Greek mythology. The skilled craftsman. Maybe a dead wallet?
This is all special, but the proof is in the dog, right? Will he eat it? And the answer is? Yes. Billions of dollars’ worth, in short order. That must be one hell of a shot in the arm. A vote of confidence. Trust. ADA is being consumed in hopes of gains and interest, in the Proof-of-Stake wallet for sure.
Cardano, as I understand it, is a system that is incorporating a new programming language. Like many crypto-projects, development is an ongoing process. With each roll-out, each new improvement, we often see a bump in value. A change in perception – as to what we think this system can accomplish. Then the lull, before the next bit of news. Perhaps a new exchange will list it. Great…then the bump.
I have watched Cardona climb from two cents. Wow. And few dumps. Incredible or telling? I’m pessimistic at present. I think – and I have been wrong – a dump is in the offing. And soon. Why?
Note: After I posted this, ADA dropped almost 25% by January 6, 2018 — but so did a lot of other altcoins…
In my thinking, it becomes more difficult when your cryptocurrency is separated into parts, like Cardano. And when these parts are separated by borders, it’s even more difficult. Hence the idea of a Maritime Law system to anchor Cardano in the world of regulators, but not necessarily be owned by them. To say that this project is not ambitious, is an understatement.
Still, I was shocked, as I always am, when cryptos climb that first big wall. These days, with institutional investors about, banks going goofy over blockchains, governments seriously considering cryptocurrencies as fiat-replacements, and now “everyone” investing in this space – I am both happy and…worried.
When the dumps come now, they will be mythical in scope. As in, “remember when that altcoin dumped, and the government stepped in and shut down the…”
Coinsquare CEO Cole Diamond recently said something that made me wonder. Coinsquare is a well-known Canadian cryptocurrency trading platform, that by American standards, is light years ahead – as Diamond seems to imply. They are adding Ripple (XRP) next and there are more altcoins to come.
Diamond implied that they are now seeing a broader interest in the space. No longer are the younger investors about, but older ones – every kind of person and age.
That’s my take. They have arrived. And, they are still arriving.
This is good, but it could spell disaster. As in a Tulip disaster.
Which means what? It means, that there is still time to come aboard, but, as some have suggested, maybe not much time to magnify your investments. Unless you think in a different way.
And, I’m not saying that Coinbase, in the US, is slow on the uptake, given the draconian tax laws and regulations in the United States, not to mention their ongoing fight with the IRS, but they could end up in the doldrums, far from future trade winds, if they don’t act quickly to secure their place in the space.
In any event, some refer to what is going on now as a “second tier” catch-up. In other words, as bitcoin, litecoin and ethereum appear to take a breath, there’s thin air up there, the next crew is making its move. Ripple, of course, being a first mover in this, but it is not really a new generation altcoin, like Cardano (ADA), Iota (MIOTA) or Raiblocks (XRB).
If you look, you will see that the old guard, such as Ethereum, are offering grants to help them scale – improve their products. Is this catch-up or forward thinking? A search for new blood? Isn’t it odd that Ethereum is considering a proof-of-stake concept, while Cardona works to implement same?
Seriously, I am enthusiastic about Cardona, but miss the idea behind bitcoin too. I feel that developers should be rewarded for their work, but we must remember how we got here. It was bitcoin. It was Satoshi Nakamoto. No matter how you bake it, split it up, rationalize it, the crucial core of it was bitcoin. And even bitcoin had its predecessors. But it was the proverbial “critical mass” and the saving grace. Almost nobody could control it. It was Pandora’s Money Box. And Pandora left only hope, if you remember your Greek Mythology – after she opened the “jar” of evils.
In the meantime, back here on earth, where Greek Gods are the names of sub sandwiches, let us man the lookouts, shall we? If we see a good target, even if it is moving, we need to take it out, bring it home, skin it, cook it and…eat it. Then think: “Next.” What other foods can we skin, before the big dogs eat?
Finally, as a side note, I have real heartburn with Peter Thiel’s idea that bitcoin, though nearly unmovable – considering the cost of transfers these days – is becoming the new replacement digital gold standard. A 20-million-dollar investment is peanuts for him, but a slight move to the downside wouldn’t hurt the Thiel profit margin, I guess. Is he coming late to the party? I hope so. My bets have been off bitcoin for months and I have profited
And I hope…like those who have contacted me…that you have also made a killing.
P.S. The above was advice. It meant: use your head and don’t let the nerds get you down.