Is anyone really — I mean really, really, really — an expert when it comes to cryptocurrency? Even the experts don’t agree what cryptocurrency means. Is it a tool? A convenient form of functional money — like a check with drawing rights. But rights to what?
This aside, what are the latest prognostications from experts? Try these:
- Balaji Srinivasan, CEO of 21.co
- Peter Smith, CEO of Blockchain
- Kathleen Breitman, CEO of Tezos
Bitcoin, the Master
Like all “experts” in this relatively new field, the implication is that bitcoin and Ethereum have staying power is common-speak. A five to ten year future window of opportunity seems to be the consensus — even given the current problems associated with bitcoin. That belief — almost a religion — is nothing new. It is going to make these experts look like digital noobs, if on July 31, 2017 or even down the road a piece, bitcoin forks anyway. By then I’m sure they will have edited their theories.
There can be only one — or something like that…
New cryptocurrencies will come along and become successful. Some currently unheard of technology could dominate the market. Again, this seems obvious. That’s why we have a thing called progress. Can we be less obtuse here and stop pandering to noob-ville.
Rich Man, Poor Man, Fraud Man?
People will become rich and poor as new cryptocurrencies enter this space. As a result of the people who lose money due to fraudulent enterprises, more regulation seems to be in the offing.
In fact, Ripple may be implying that markets are heavily regulated for a reason. This is yet another eyebrow raiser. Ripple went to the dark side early in the game and is no doubt leveraging its position against the “free” cryptocurrencies as they themselves struggle to become a meaningful player in the cryptosphere. One wonders if they will soon apply for monopolistic benefits. Perhaps become one with “Fedcoin,” in the United States of America.
The Cashless Prison
Cryptocurrency must not be private? Regulation will eventually take over.
The critical component required by governments is ultimately, a cashless system whereby — allegedly — everyone can be more secure. The problem is, one has no privacy in this scenario, no right to life, liberty and, in the end, no private property — even digital property. How can one be even remotely free if every personal transaction is cataloged by the state, controlled by bureaucrats and dictated by the political wind?
Benevolent Big Brothers
Speculation in cryptocurrencies will lessen as certain altcoins become more stable. That bitcoins are not just for drugs.
Right. Got it.
This bit of speculation is a bit disingenuous. In fact, it’s just a set up. Stated to entice the under-educated. The noobs. To hint again, that appropriate rules to unmask the users of cryptocurrencies will magically enable a virtual world-utilization of cryptocurrencies, especially when new “killer apps” come online. All will be well, so long as we obey.
Conversely, it can be argued that the instability of cryptocurrencies are in part, caused by the states themselves. Take China for example. That bastion of corruption on one hand implies that bitcoin miners will be heavily regulated and on the other, they are allowed to profit. Do you hear “payoff?”
Since China purportedly manages most of the bitcoin blockchain, is it any wonder that it bitcoin is inherently unstable? And we all see what happens when bitcoin catches a cold — almost all other relevant cryptocurrencies nosedive.
In support of the move away from state controlled cryptocurrency, things like Bytecoin, Monero and Aeon were born — and many others — in an ongoing attempt to remind the minders that well, all of the people have not rolled over and played dead — just yet.
The Silly Con
Silicon Valley will become a direct competitor to Wall Street. This seems straightforward. As computer technology advances, its underlying information infrastructure will continue lubricate the wheels of finance. All of the major trading floors, worldwide are already supported by the latest Fintech. But the assumption here is much deeper. That the technology itself will make Wall Street, for all practical purposes, passé.
Imagine that for a moment. Not that all the brokers and lawyers would be replaced by smart contracts, but that the wheels of finance themselves are replaced with cryptocurrency. Where paper money, fiat currency, the Federal Reserve, are at once, relics of a bygone age.
Do you take VISA?
Competition will force the old guard — say MasterCard and Visa — to step up. In other words, if bitcoin or any cryptocurrency, can one day compete with the current regulated entities then and only then, would the need arise for the old guard to “improve.” That or be ushered out.
The only problem is, bitcoin is currently too slow to compete with the current credit based entities, except where it comes to moving large amounts of money across borders cheaply. A point that is often ignored. They don’t want to remind anyone that there are inexpensive ways to do big business.
Micro-transactions are all the rage today — supposedly — but when it comes down to the “golden” tacks, if one can move 200,000,000 dollars in ten minutes or less, across 50 borders, without taxes or banking fees, well, who needs bitcoin “micro?” We have Iota for that anyway and they are cheaper — better at the small stuff. Maybe better at all the crypto stuff.
One should remember that technology is advancing. Governments worldwide are working on systems — quantum computers — which, if true, can crack cryptocurrency addresses — take your funds — in about a minute. It might therefore behoove one, if cryptocurrency seems a lucrative investment, to study the next generation of altcoins which are resistant or even immune to the quantum “state” hackers. Maybe Iota, but there are others.
This being said, if governments cannot get what they want, if they cannot control the newest generations of non-state currencies, they would need to make them irrelevant by installing a better form of money, perhaps by privatizing the banking industry altogether or by controlling the internet, radio waves, WiFi etc. At last resort, Big Brother would require draconian laws, like those in North Korea, and the dismantling of technology altogether.
Absent a total crackdown against cryptocurrency, there are other more curious ways to thwart the ever growing popularity of the expanding cryptosphere: government sponsored hacks, thefts, 51% attacks and so on.
It is interesting of late, how many cryptocurrency exchanges, wallets, etc., are being hacked. The newest one today? Veritaseum, to the tune of eight million dollars.